The Cycle of Uninformed Optimism

The Cycle of Uninformed Optimism

How many times has this happened to you?

A new course, a new business, a new YouTube channel, a new sport, a new niche—it doesn’t matter what it is. Any new venture you decide to pursue in life always seems easier and more fun before you actually start.

If you tend to start various projects and give up before seeing results, pay close attention to what I'm about to say. You might be stuck in a never-ending cycle of failure.

You're trapped in the Cycle of Uninformed Optimism.

In one of the most iconic moments of the movie "The Matrix," Neo is taken by Morpheus to a simulation program where everyone around him follows their predetermined paths, unaware of the true nature of reality.

In this scenario, a striking figure appears: The Woman in Red. She is a programmed distraction, designed to divert Neo's attention from the deeper understanding Morpheus is trying to teach him.

This scene is a perfect parallel to what many of us experience in real life.

Take Pedro, for example. He is a YouTuber earning around $200 a month. The business is yielding some results but not nearly enough to cover his monthly expenses. The dream he had of becoming a millionaire YouTuber seemed much easier in the beginning.

When he started, Pedro had no idea of the challenges and difficulties he would face on his journey to becoming a successful YouTuber.

One day, his cousin João comes with a proposal:

"Pedro, let's open a restaurant? We split the costs, I handle the operation, and you just need to help me manage it."

Pedro thinks, "Well, if I work 2 hours a day at the restaurant, I can create a new income stream while my YouTube channel takes off. That would be great; I can do both."

So, Pedro decides to open the restaurant with João.

And it worked out! The restaurant is now bringing in $400 a month for him. But unlike what he imagined, the work demand takes up 6 hours of his day.

This made him slow down on his YouTube channel, which now brings in only $40.

It doesn't take long for Pedro to conclude that it's not worth continuing with YouTube since the financial return from the restaurant is higher.

He gave up a job that earned $200 for one that earned $400. It seems like a good trade, right?

Actually, no! By getting involved with the restaurant, Pedro veered off his path as a YouTube content creator.

Yes, the restaurant opportunity seemed attractive at first glance, offering almost immediate profit potential that could surpass what YouTube was bringing. But what Pedro ignored was the concept of leverage in both types of businesses.

In the digital age, content like videos can be produced and distributed at near-zero marginal cost, reaching millions of people worldwide. This means that once created, the content continues to generate value without the need for additional time or money investment.

This is the essence of digital leverage: the ability to multiply your impact and income without proportionally increasing your costs or working hours.

In contrast, the restaurant, while offering immediate financial return, required significant time, energy, and physical presence. This type of business has a clear leverage limit, as its financial growth is directly tied to Pedro's effort.

What will keep Pedro poor is not the fact that he is working at the restaurant, but the behavioral pattern that led him to give up the time and energy he had already dedicated to YouTube.

Pedro was experiencing the Cycle of Uninformed Optimism.

Pedro's decision to "jump from one thing to another" shows that instead of chasing the next shiny opportunity, he should have focused his energy on an asset with greater long-term return potential (YouTube).

The restaurant was Pedro's Woman in Red. She represents new opportunities that initially seem very promising but distract us from our current path.

Every time we decide to embark on a new project, we are often tempted by these shiny distractions that make us dive into new projects with the hope that they will be the golden ticket we were missing.

An Endless Cycle

The cycle begins with:

Stage 1 - Uninformed Optimism:

This is the initial moment of excitement when you are exposed to a new business opportunity or a new project that seems promising.

This initial excitement exists because before diving into a new venture, you are unaware of all the variables and ignore reality.

It’s like seeing only the tip of the iceberg without considering the massive part below the surface that represents hard work, risks, and obstacles.

You dive headfirst into the restaurant, and when you get into the project, reality hits.

Stage 2 - Informed Pessimism:

As the restaurant starts taking shape, unforeseen challenges and difficulties arise.

Reality becomes evident: "It will be harder than you imagined."

At this point, the initial excitement gives way to discouragement and questioning whether it’s worth continuing.

This phase is marked by a more realistic, yet pessimistic, understanding of the project.

And then comes...

Stage 3 - The Valley of Despair:

At this point, the difficulties and challenges of running the project become so intense that you start questioning the purpose of all the effort.

Doubt sets in, and the desire to give up is tempting.

Here, something interesting probably happens: Stage 1 - Uninformed Optimism:...

You are exposed to a new business opportunity or a new project that seems promising. This initial excitement exists because before diving into a new venture, you are unaware of all the variables and ignore reality...

Do you see where I’m going? This cycle has no end.

How to Break the Cycle?

If you truly want to know what success is, you NEED to focus on just one project.

Direct your energy into one thing and do EVERYTHING necessary, not to "see if it works," but UNTIL it works.

Do you know why?

There is nothing and no one capable of defeating a person who never gives up.

If something goes wrong, it doesn't mean it's over. You just need to adjust the route and not make the same mistakes again.

Choose from all your projects the one that gives you a combo of:

Financial return + personal fulfillment + leverage potential.

After analyzing and choosing the main project, you finally break free from the cycle's chains and reach the fourth stage:

Informed Optimism:

If you can surpass the Valley of Despair, you start developing a more balanced and realistic understanding of your project.

Lessons and adjustments are made, and there is a recognition of the challenges, but you also see the potential rewards.

This is an optimism fully grounded in reality.

This is where the taste of success starts to appear.

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